Yesterday Prime Minister Noda visited reactor 4 up at Fukushima Daiichi. Amongst other things, he was seen inspecting the spent fuel pool, yes the one that will supposedly kill everyone when it collapses. The PM was wearing a protective suit, probably a good idea as a precaution, though it might have been more useful were we granted updated reports of actual radiation levels at the plant.
During the day Noda also visited an elementary school in Naraha, a town in Fukushima prefecture within the 20km radius of the plant that is currently undergoing 'decontamination'. There the Prime Minister gave a speech stressing that decontamination efforts must continue in order to 'revive' Japan. According to information released to the media, Naraha is in the 'first zone', which is receiving 'less than 20' millisieverts of radiation a year. Those watching were treated to pictures of workers wearing ludicrous protective masks clearing rooftops of leaves and other rubbish...
It is worth pointing out that moving to Naraha today and living there for a year, you would receive rather less than 20 millisieverts of radiation, because radioactive isotypes have been decaying steadily since the accident, when these radiation estimates were made, and will continue to decay. To my knowledge, radiation levels on the day the measurements were taken were simply extrapolated for an entire year, leading to a yearly measurement that wildly overestimates the actual radiation level. This kind of thing is regularly done when radiation is concerned just in order to be conservative, to be 'on the safe side'. I wouldn't suggest that it is not advisable to have a margin of error, but it is a good idea to keep overestimation in mind when these issues are discussed. In this context, it is a shame that current radiation levels in Naraha town weren't made available on the same broadcast as the Noda speech; that might have been interesting. My guess is that they would be very close to background level in the rest of Japan.
Even if the radiation level in Naraha is accepted as 20 mSv/yr, this is one-fifth of the dose estimated by a plethora of respected international bodies to be the minimum that could possibly expose a human to possible health risks. And we are talking about highly conservative ultra-safe judgements made with the goal a having a wide 'safety margin'. For example, UNSCEAR's conclusions are made reflecting the background of the most rigorous scientific studies on the planet, capable of detecting the elevated cancer risk of a minute fraction of a per cent that results from being exposed to radiation of more than 100 mSv/year, and then only if the most pessimistic of unproven theories of radiation is accepted.
20 mSv/yr is also about one twentieth! of the radiation that residents of Ramsar, Iran receive as natural background radiation every year, without any known deleterious effects. It is no higher than the natural background in many other parts of the world, and comparable to many many others including Denver, Colarado. It is the equivalent of a single chest scan, and much much less than a full-body CT scan; yet medical scans deliver this radiation over a single dose, not spread out over an entire year. Yet nobody seems to be complaining about chest scans, or demonstrating outside hospitals waving pictures of deformed fetuses.
When I think of some of the likely things those workers have done in their lives that have measurably increased their actual risk of cancer before they started cleaning rooftops in Fukushima prefecture I feel a certain amount of righteous anger. Have they ever lived in a major city with smog? Do they eat fried chicken? Drink too much? Go out in the sun? God forbid, did one of them whack a cigarette in his mouth a minute after taking off his mask?
I'm thinking here that if Noda really wants to 'revive' Japan, he might be better off trying to 'revive' a sense of perspective and start dealing with problems that really exist.
Monday, October 08, 2012
Sunday, October 07, 2012
Nuclear Power: Why the hell not?
This blog has very nearly become totally dedicated to the support of nuclear power in Japan and throughout the world. My conversion from skeptic to nuclear supporter has been accompanied by a slow shift of perception in other areas of opinion; this is because once atomic energy is accepted as the basis for the production of the bulk of world energy supplies, many other seemingly intractable problems crystallise into non-issues.
Naturally, energy production becomes vastly more sustainable and reliable. There are no more concerns about peak oil. And oil itself becomes vastly less valuable- its main remaining use being for the production of gasoline. That would remain a problem, but long-term it is possible to imagine all vehicles being electrical vehicles.
When you consider the fact that tension and war in the Middle East is due, at least in part, to desire for oil on the part of the West, it is not completely naive to believe that, if that desire were to subside, the stresses that have led too many times to war in the region will also subside. For example, America would have had no need to invade Iraq if they hadn't neede to guarantee oil supplies from the region. A dependence upon oil keeps many economies vulnerable to political crises in one of the most unstable parts of the world- and Japan is one of those economies. And if you believe for an instant that the American invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with oil and everything to do with 'weapons of mass destruction', I invite you to consider the case of North Korea, which to this day is still working on atomic weapons but, luckily for them, has no oil.
Around the world carbon-trading schemes are costing huge sums of money, often with the net outcome of no reduction of carbon emission at all, as the 'right to pollute' is merely traded. All that results is the supression of economic activity. In Australia the issue of carbon-pricing has brought down a prime minister, an opposition leader and very nearly a government. The newly-introduced emissions trading scheme remains hightly unpopular and has substantially raised electricity prices around the country. And the scheme, which is designed to make non-carbon-emitting energy production competitive, is in its very conception ludicrous, as the most efficient production of emission-free energy, nuclear power, is illegal in Australia. If there were nuclear power in Australia, there would be no purpose in having such a scheme, as nuclear power is practically emission-free.
Pollution around the world, from coal ash, gasoline exhaust and many other pollutants would be vastly reduced in a nuclear world, saving about 2 million lives a year. Global warming would be massively mitigated, and the attention of world governments could be more readily directed to other pressing concerns, such as poverty and hunger. Which, by the way, are much more easily alleviated with a source of clean, reliable and conflict-free power.
I am not suggestion that nuclear power can single-handedly solve the world's problems. But it is galling to me when something extraordinarily useful and productive is being ignored, or worse, treated as it were a problem. It doesn't have to be this way. A better world is possible.
Naturally, energy production becomes vastly more sustainable and reliable. There are no more concerns about peak oil. And oil itself becomes vastly less valuable- its main remaining use being for the production of gasoline. That would remain a problem, but long-term it is possible to imagine all vehicles being electrical vehicles.
When you consider the fact that tension and war in the Middle East is due, at least in part, to desire for oil on the part of the West, it is not completely naive to believe that, if that desire were to subside, the stresses that have led too many times to war in the region will also subside. For example, America would have had no need to invade Iraq if they hadn't neede to guarantee oil supplies from the region. A dependence upon oil keeps many economies vulnerable to political crises in one of the most unstable parts of the world- and Japan is one of those economies. And if you believe for an instant that the American invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with oil and everything to do with 'weapons of mass destruction', I invite you to consider the case of North Korea, which to this day is still working on atomic weapons but, luckily for them, has no oil.
Around the world carbon-trading schemes are costing huge sums of money, often with the net outcome of no reduction of carbon emission at all, as the 'right to pollute' is merely traded. All that results is the supression of economic activity. In Australia the issue of carbon-pricing has brought down a prime minister, an opposition leader and very nearly a government. The newly-introduced emissions trading scheme remains hightly unpopular and has substantially raised electricity prices around the country. And the scheme, which is designed to make non-carbon-emitting energy production competitive, is in its very conception ludicrous, as the most efficient production of emission-free energy, nuclear power, is illegal in Australia. If there were nuclear power in Australia, there would be no purpose in having such a scheme, as nuclear power is practically emission-free.
Pollution around the world, from coal ash, gasoline exhaust and many other pollutants would be vastly reduced in a nuclear world, saving about 2 million lives a year. Global warming would be massively mitigated, and the attention of world governments could be more readily directed to other pressing concerns, such as poverty and hunger. Which, by the way, are much more easily alleviated with a source of clean, reliable and conflict-free power.
I am not suggestion that nuclear power can single-handedly solve the world's problems. But it is galling to me when something extraordinarily useful and productive is being ignored, or worse, treated as it were a problem. It doesn't have to be this way. A better world is possible.
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
Great news!
Unless of course you are interested in say, protecting the environment, saving money, or preventing the wastage of hundreds of billions of dollars.
The Japanese government estimated today that if it is to completely phase out the use of nuclear power by 2030, it will have to invest 50 trillion yen (about $638 billion) in alternative energy infrastructure. In addition, the cost of electricity for the average household will double from 16,900 yen to 32,243 yen per month.
A few more grandmothers will have to make some more deposits in their post office bank accounts to collect that kind of money, I think.
Does it really have to be noted that Japan does not have enough money to pass budgets as it is? Is it possible to imagine the economic chaos that would ensure if the government actually decides to pursue this ludicrous course?
Hopefully I will not be stupid enough to still be in the country if it does.
The Japanese government estimated today that if it is to completely phase out the use of nuclear power by 2030, it will have to invest 50 trillion yen (about $638 billion) in alternative energy infrastructure. In addition, the cost of electricity for the average household will double from 16,900 yen to 32,243 yen per month.
A few more grandmothers will have to make some more deposits in their post office bank accounts to collect that kind of money, I think.
Does it really have to be noted that Japan does not have enough money to pass budgets as it is? Is it possible to imagine the economic chaos that would ensure if the government actually decides to pursue this ludicrous course?
Hopefully I will not be stupid enough to still be in the country if it does.
Friday, August 31, 2012
Heard about the Venezuelean oil refinery disaster?
Thought you might not have. Last Saturday an oil refinery in Venenzuela exploded, resulting in the deaths of 41 people and injuring at least 80. Here's a link
Worldwide media coverage was ... well, let's just say that the media was less than saturated. Headlines were not made around the world. People have not boycotted food from Venezuela, large parts of the country have not been declared 'uninhabitable'. Nor have self-proclaimed 'experts' appeared on TV in America and Europe to dramatise the danger and suggest that people in far countries are at risk.
All this despite the fact that the disaster (an actual, genuine disaster) released massive amounts of toxic waste and dangerous fumes into the atmosphere.
If the accident had been nuclear...well, who can imagine the public reaction when a nuclear incident that killed or injured noone in Fukushima last year has generated such horror, such fear, such terror?
The demands placed on the Fukushima accident to be 'safe' are extraordinary and it has passed them all with flying colours. It's impossible to cause fewer casualties than zero. Fukushima will not be any safer until radiation starts raising people from the dead.
How do people continue to ignore this hypocrisy?
Here's the response from the oil industry regarding the Venezuelan explosion. It's good for a laugh.
Worldwide media coverage was ... well, let's just say that the media was less than saturated. Headlines were not made around the world. People have not boycotted food from Venezuela, large parts of the country have not been declared 'uninhabitable'. Nor have self-proclaimed 'experts' appeared on TV in America and Europe to dramatise the danger and suggest that people in far countries are at risk.
All this despite the fact that the disaster (an actual, genuine disaster) released massive amounts of toxic waste and dangerous fumes into the atmosphere.
If the accident had been nuclear...well, who can imagine the public reaction when a nuclear incident that killed or injured noone in Fukushima last year has generated such horror, such fear, such terror?
The demands placed on the Fukushima accident to be 'safe' are extraordinary and it has passed them all with flying colours. It's impossible to cause fewer casualties than zero. Fukushima will not be any safer until radiation starts raising people from the dead.
How do people continue to ignore this hypocrisy?
Here's the response from the oil industry regarding the Venezuelan explosion. It's good for a laugh.
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Neil Armstrong
So Neil Armstrong has died.
I seriously wonder whether I will see the day in my lifetime when the last person to have walked on the moon dies. There seems little prospect of anybody else landing on the moon. Or anywhere.
I am very disappointed with the future. I want my moon holidays, my flying cars, robo-maids and hoverboards. Not to mentions sex bots.
All we've got spacewise at the moment is a big rover on Mars. A not insignificant achievement, but certainly with little possibility of anything interesting being found. Robots first landed on Mars in the 70s.
The essential problem is that it is impossible to make money out of space. Nobody could possibly make money going to the moon again, let alone Mars or somewhere further away. That means governments, and in the current economic climate (and, I suspect, the climate for many years to come) governments will not possibly be able to consider the costs of putting on on such an immense and useless project.
I seriously wonder whether I will see the day in my lifetime when the last person to have walked on the moon dies. There seems little prospect of anybody else landing on the moon. Or anywhere.
I am very disappointed with the future. I want my moon holidays, my flying cars, robo-maids and hoverboards. Not to mentions sex bots.
All we've got spacewise at the moment is a big rover on Mars. A not insignificant achievement, but certainly with little possibility of anything interesting being found. Robots first landed on Mars in the 70s.
The essential problem is that it is impossible to make money out of space. Nobody could possibly make money going to the moon again, let alone Mars or somewhere further away. That means governments, and in the current economic climate (and, I suspect, the climate for many years to come) governments will not possibly be able to consider the costs of putting on on such an immense and useless project.
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Why Fukushima made me pro-nuclear
The piece I was working on finally got into the Japan Times today.
The most interesting thing about the process was the back and forth with the editor, mostly over fact-checking and providing links to my claims. He told me he had to be very careful because of the subject matter.
Of course that is fair enough, and appropriate for an important topic. I felt like pointing out, however, that if anti-nuclear pieces were half as rigorously vetted I wouldn't have felt the need to write anything at all.
Here is my article.
The most interesting thing about the process was the back and forth with the editor, mostly over fact-checking and providing links to my claims. He told me he had to be very careful because of the subject matter.
Of course that is fair enough, and appropriate for an important topic. I felt like pointing out, however, that if anti-nuclear pieces were half as rigorously vetted I wouldn't have felt the need to write anything at all.
Here is my article.
Saturday, July 21, 2012
Know More and Fear Less
Know more and fear less is extremely good advice when it comes to nuclear power, as I have found again and again over the last 16 months.
In Japan however, the motto seems to be Know Less and Fear More.
Nothing illustrates this better than the brouhaha over the last week regarding the 'public hearings' around the country designed to give people a chance to vent about nuclear power. Crowds hostile to nuclear power have been incensed that people more open-minded have been allowed to speak. At the Nagoya hearing on Monday one of the speakers (who are chosen by lottery) turned out to be an employee of Chiba Electric Power Company. When he expressed the opinion that the dangers of radiation have been exaggerated and reminded the audience that nobody died in the Fukushima accident, the enraged mob stormed the stage and tore him limb from limb with their bare hands.
Okay that last part wasn't true, but what did happen is that organizers of the meeting received 480 complaints about the speaker's remarks, with widespread criticism of the fact a power company worker had even been given permission to speak.
480 complaints. That's 480 people who were so upset at being told the truth that they wrote a letter to express their disapproval. Disaster minister Goshi Hosono was forced to step in and promise that the anti-nuclear sentiment of the crowd would never be threatened by an alternate viewpoint again, saying 'If a power company employee is chosen as speaker, he or she will be replaced by someone else."
Way to go on the stifling of dissent, guys! These hearing are fast becoming kangaroo courts, where large numbers of ill-informed people express their unfocused rage at things they don't and are unwilling to understand, and where an intense groupthink phenomenon will quite possibly result in the worst possible outcome for Japan as a whole.
I prefer to find out about the science myself. I must be weird or something.
In Japan however, the motto seems to be Know Less and Fear More.
Nothing illustrates this better than the brouhaha over the last week regarding the 'public hearings' around the country designed to give people a chance to vent about nuclear power. Crowds hostile to nuclear power have been incensed that people more open-minded have been allowed to speak. At the Nagoya hearing on Monday one of the speakers (who are chosen by lottery) turned out to be an employee of Chiba Electric Power Company. When he expressed the opinion that the dangers of radiation have been exaggerated and reminded the audience that nobody died in the Fukushima accident, the enraged mob stormed the stage and tore him limb from limb with their bare hands.
Okay that last part wasn't true, but what did happen is that organizers of the meeting received 480 complaints about the speaker's remarks, with widespread criticism of the fact a power company worker had even been given permission to speak.
480 complaints. That's 480 people who were so upset at being told the truth that they wrote a letter to express their disapproval. Disaster minister Goshi Hosono was forced to step in and promise that the anti-nuclear sentiment of the crowd would never be threatened by an alternate viewpoint again, saying 'If a power company employee is chosen as speaker, he or she will be replaced by someone else."
Way to go on the stifling of dissent, guys! These hearing are fast becoming kangaroo courts, where large numbers of ill-informed people express their unfocused rage at things they don't and are unwilling to understand, and where an intense groupthink phenomenon will quite possibly result in the worst possible outcome for Japan as a whole.
I prefer to find out about the science myself. I must be weird or something.
Wednesday, June 27, 2012
Japanese protestors flirt with fantasy
Today Japan's electrical power companies held shareholder meetings across the country. TEPCO, the company responsible for the Tokyo region and also the owners of the troubled Fukushima Daiichi plant, held their meeting in a huge hall in Tokyo. Amongst other things, management passed a proposal to accept a massive injection of funds from the government, to the tune of 1 trillion yen ($12.5 billion) from the government, effectively nationalizing the company. During the meeting some shareholders heckled the speakers, and outside the TEPCO meeting environmentalist and civic action groups demanded an end to nuclear power in Japan.
One protestor said, "I don't want TEPCO to take taxpayer money and raise electricity rates in order to avoid responsibility for the Fukushima accident', a statement which betrays an extraordinary ignorance of reality - specifically a 100 billion dollar reality, which is the estimated cost of the accident, including dealing with the accident itself, cleanup, contamination, evacuation, compensation and decommissioning. TEPCO has been charged with paying for much of this. Which makes one wonder where the protestor thinks the money will come from, if not from the government or increased electricity prices.
And in a massive display of unintended irony, a group of shareholders and their environmentalist allies put forward the motion that the Kashiwazaki nuclear plant in Niigata prefecture be decommissioned and a gas power plant built in its place. Is it possible to imagine an action that will have a more detrimental effect upon the environment than building a gas-powered plant? Building a pollution-producing plant that pours massive amounts of CO2 into the atomosphere, and mothballing a building that produces massive amounts of cheap safe power that is CO2 free?
One protestor said, "I don't want TEPCO to take taxpayer money and raise electricity rates in order to avoid responsibility for the Fukushima accident', a statement which betrays an extraordinary ignorance of reality - specifically a 100 billion dollar reality, which is the estimated cost of the accident, including dealing with the accident itself, cleanup, contamination, evacuation, compensation and decommissioning. TEPCO has been charged with paying for much of this. Which makes one wonder where the protestor thinks the money will come from, if not from the government or increased electricity prices.
And in a massive display of unintended irony, a group of shareholders and their environmentalist allies put forward the motion that the Kashiwazaki nuclear plant in Niigata prefecture be decommissioned and a gas power plant built in its place. Is it possible to imagine an action that will have a more detrimental effect upon the environment than building a gas-powered plant? Building a pollution-producing plant that pours massive amounts of CO2 into the atomosphere, and mothballing a building that produces massive amounts of cheap safe power that is CO2 free?
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
My Geiger Counter
I bought this little baby on the weekend at Yodabashi camera, a major electronics store. It cost about 10,000 yen, $120 or so. Here's a shot from my living room:
This detector measures radiation in microsieverts per hour. There's a bit of variation, anything from less than 0.05 (which just reads as 'low') to about 0.2. These kind of readings are very miniscule, reflecting natural background levels of radiation that are found anywhere in the world. For example, this measurement above of 0.15 micro/hr works out to 1.3 millisieverts a year, well within background radiation. Yesterday I went for a walk along the stream near my house and the readings were the same. On the weekend I'll go up to the park underneath the zoo up the hill from this apartment, and post some readings from there. I have heard that last year people were concerned at readings from the park, due to 'caesium accumulating on the leaves'.
It looks increasingly likely that at least some nuclear power reactors will be restarted before the summer reaches its peak. Specifically, reactors at the Oi power station in Fukui prefecture are being targeted for imminent restart in order to prevent power shortages in the huge Kansai region. It is known that the prime minister supports this move, and today the governor of Fukui prefecture toured the power plant to 'ensure its safety'. Amongst other things, new diesel generators have been installed on a hillside above the reactor to power cooling systems in the event of a devastating tsunami. There's that reflective hindsight again: if only the Japanese could turn their technological prowess to the production of time machines! They could go back in time and save Fukushima!
Speaking of these expensive (and largely redundant) safety measures, a meeting of experts in Fukui on Sunday to present a safety report was interrupted repeatedly by shouting protestors. The meeting had to be adjurned and reopened in another room, and this time the anti-nuclear activists were prevented from entering. They responded by denouncing the meeting and complaining loudly that democracy was being subverted when the public was not allowed to attend important meetings. Oh, well.
Maybe those activists would prefer to have even more deaths caused by unnecessary evacuation. The Yomiuri Shinbun has reported 573 deaths as 'related' to the disaster. These were people living in evacuation centers in the days, weeks and months after the nuclear 'crisis'. In the general chaos of a genuine disaster that killed 20,000 people, many were left in conditions of extreme fatigue, old age and chronic disease without adequate health or nursing care. Now, a large percentage of these people were elderly, but there is no doubt that many would still be alive today if they had been allowed to stay in their homes.
As comparison, this is about 10 times the entire death toll from radiation in the Chernoby accident.
If that doesn't make you think the dangers of radiation are exaggerated, I'm not sure what would.
This detector measures radiation in microsieverts per hour. There's a bit of variation, anything from less than 0.05 (which just reads as 'low') to about 0.2. These kind of readings are very miniscule, reflecting natural background levels of radiation that are found anywhere in the world. For example, this measurement above of 0.15 micro/hr works out to 1.3 millisieverts a year, well within background radiation. Yesterday I went for a walk along the stream near my house and the readings were the same. On the weekend I'll go up to the park underneath the zoo up the hill from this apartment, and post some readings from there. I have heard that last year people were concerned at readings from the park, due to 'caesium accumulating on the leaves'.
It looks increasingly likely that at least some nuclear power reactors will be restarted before the summer reaches its peak. Specifically, reactors at the Oi power station in Fukui prefecture are being targeted for imminent restart in order to prevent power shortages in the huge Kansai region. It is known that the prime minister supports this move, and today the governor of Fukui prefecture toured the power plant to 'ensure its safety'. Amongst other things, new diesel generators have been installed on a hillside above the reactor to power cooling systems in the event of a devastating tsunami. There's that reflective hindsight again: if only the Japanese could turn their technological prowess to the production of time machines! They could go back in time and save Fukushima!
Speaking of these expensive (and largely redundant) safety measures, a meeting of experts in Fukui on Sunday to present a safety report was interrupted repeatedly by shouting protestors. The meeting had to be adjurned and reopened in another room, and this time the anti-nuclear activists were prevented from entering. They responded by denouncing the meeting and complaining loudly that democracy was being subverted when the public was not allowed to attend important meetings. Oh, well.
Maybe those activists would prefer to have even more deaths caused by unnecessary evacuation. The Yomiuri Shinbun has reported 573 deaths as 'related' to the disaster. These were people living in evacuation centers in the days, weeks and months after the nuclear 'crisis'. In the general chaos of a genuine disaster that killed 20,000 people, many were left in conditions of extreme fatigue, old age and chronic disease without adequate health or nursing care. Now, a large percentage of these people were elderly, but there is no doubt that many would still be alive today if they had been allowed to stay in their homes.
As comparison, this is about 10 times the entire death toll from radiation in the Chernoby accident.
If that doesn't make you think the dangers of radiation are exaggerated, I'm not sure what would.
Saturday, June 02, 2012
Earthquakes, risk and the Japanese psyche
The Japanese world is a very dangerous place. Earthquakes, tsunami, floods, nuclear radiation, tornados, murder, lightning, foreigners, overseas travel, snakes, monkeys, wasps, bears, heatstroke, unemployment, overwork; every night on the news the dangers of some new terror are described in excruciating detail. The only thing they apparently have no fear of is unintended irony, as statistically Japan is the safest country in the world, with the lowest or close to the lowest levels of crime and premature death (not to mention spontaneous dancing) in the history of humanity. The real threats to society largely go unnoted: depression, loneliness, alcohol and tobacco, AKB48.
The fear of earthquakes is an excellent example of where the Japanese perception of risk results in a hugely sub-optimal outcome. The earthquake and tsunami last year affected large areas of Tohoku, especially the prefectures of Ibaraki, Fukushima and Miyagi. About 20,000 people were killed by the tsunami. Yet this earthquake was completely unpredicted. Indeed, the last time an earthquake of this magnitude was recorded in the region was in the 800s, and there are only a few incidents of quakes this size in recorded human history. Japan is an earthquake-prone country; there will undoubtedly be fatal tremblors in the years to come; yet it is extremely unlikely that another quake of similar magnitude will occur in the near future. In fact, there probably won't be one of similar size for decades or centuries.
That hasn't stopped the Japanese becoming obsessed with quakes and tsunamis. Schools practice evacuation drills religiously, and town halls pore obsessively over topographic maps, searching feverishly for escape routes to hilltops that are 20 meters or more above sea level. Most absurdly of all, areas affected by last year's tsunami have responded with the most extraordinary levels of surreal retrospective wishful thinking: land prices on hilltops have doubled or tripled, while land prices at sea level have dropped by 60% or more. Meanwhile local governments draft plans to install tsunami-proof structures on rooftops for people to hold onto when forced to the roofs of their buildings. This is despite the fact that these regions are the only areas in Japan that are safe from tsunami: statistically, they will, in all probability, be safe for about a thousand years. The immense pressure on the tectonic plates nearby has been relieved for the foreseable future, and geologically it is the safest place in Japan. In the words of Robin Williams in The World According to Garp, the whole area has been pre-disastered.
At this point it's worth pointing out the atrocious record of earthquake forecasting. Neither the Tohoku earthquake or the Kobe earthquake were predicted and both were completely unexpected in terms of ferocity. Meanwhile, the Tokyo region is constantly brought up as the site of the imminently expected 'Big One'. The truth is that earthquake prediction is such an inexact science that its success rate is little better than chance. Put it this way: I'm not losing any sleep over it.
The Japanese are not a people that cope well with the unexpected. They respond to surprise with yet more emphasis on preparing for what they can predict, regardless of its improbability. They have yet to learn that flexibility in the face of the unexpected is a more useful attribute than a detailed and idealistic plan for a disaster that will probably never come. As the Sunscreen Song pragmatically tells us:
The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never cross your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday.
The fear of earthquakes is an excellent example of where the Japanese perception of risk results in a hugely sub-optimal outcome. The earthquake and tsunami last year affected large areas of Tohoku, especially the prefectures of Ibaraki, Fukushima and Miyagi. About 20,000 people were killed by the tsunami. Yet this earthquake was completely unpredicted. Indeed, the last time an earthquake of this magnitude was recorded in the region was in the 800s, and there are only a few incidents of quakes this size in recorded human history. Japan is an earthquake-prone country; there will undoubtedly be fatal tremblors in the years to come; yet it is extremely unlikely that another quake of similar magnitude will occur in the near future. In fact, there probably won't be one of similar size for decades or centuries.
That hasn't stopped the Japanese becoming obsessed with quakes and tsunamis. Schools practice evacuation drills religiously, and town halls pore obsessively over topographic maps, searching feverishly for escape routes to hilltops that are 20 meters or more above sea level. Most absurdly of all, areas affected by last year's tsunami have responded with the most extraordinary levels of surreal retrospective wishful thinking: land prices on hilltops have doubled or tripled, while land prices at sea level have dropped by 60% or more. Meanwhile local governments draft plans to install tsunami-proof structures on rooftops for people to hold onto when forced to the roofs of their buildings. This is despite the fact that these regions are the only areas in Japan that are safe from tsunami: statistically, they will, in all probability, be safe for about a thousand years. The immense pressure on the tectonic plates nearby has been relieved for the foreseable future, and geologically it is the safest place in Japan. In the words of Robin Williams in The World According to Garp, the whole area has been pre-disastered.
At this point it's worth pointing out the atrocious record of earthquake forecasting. Neither the Tohoku earthquake or the Kobe earthquake were predicted and both were completely unexpected in terms of ferocity. Meanwhile, the Tokyo region is constantly brought up as the site of the imminently expected 'Big One'. The truth is that earthquake prediction is such an inexact science that its success rate is little better than chance. Put it this way: I'm not losing any sleep over it.
The Japanese are not a people that cope well with the unexpected. They respond to surprise with yet more emphasis on preparing for what they can predict, regardless of its improbability. They have yet to learn that flexibility in the face of the unexpected is a more useful attribute than a detailed and idealistic plan for a disaster that will probably never come. As the Sunscreen Song pragmatically tells us:
The real troubles in your life are apt to be things that never cross your worried mind, the kind that blindside you at 4pm on some idle Tuesday.
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